2011: As I See It

It was always a game of confidence - all the dovish and/or hawkish comments are nothing but a way of conveying optimism to the markets. When the inflation concerns rise, the tone is hawkish, and when things heat up, they get dovish. There is never anything more to it - like most people Central Banks are also shooting in the dark. Its like a physicist's prescription - most of the time its hit and trial method. 


All that QE was intended to do was to create abundant liquidity, and confidence. That no matter what happens, the Central Bank would do anything and everything it can do. And it seems to be working. Money is flowing back to USA, and S&P is almost at its highest level in post-crisis period. Same is true for quite a few other major markets. Its a game of chicken everyone is playing - the underlying economy is still fragile, and there are lot of skeletons hidden in Eurozone as well. However, if 'somehow' governments succeed in keeping the confidence up that we will tide over the crisis, we eventually will. There is a difference between 2008 and 2011 - it was banks then, and its sovereigns now. The difference is that unlike banks, sovereigns can change the rules of the game, if need be. And thats a very big difference. Its not one Mexico defaulting, or one Argentina defaulting. Its a global scare, and any actions on the part of big sovereigns would certainly have endorsements from others. The issue of 'Wikileaks' is a case in point - if they don't like your actions, they would frame you under 'anything'. And George Soros of the world may have broken the bank of england, but it takes much more to break the Bank of the World. There are still chances of we plunging back into recession, but its just a 10% probability (though if it happens, they all hell will break loose), and best bet would be a 60%-70% Put. 


The second part of the debate is EM vs DM - where do we see money flowing to. I think it would again be EM this year, in spite of all the talks about DM coming back in vogue. EM countries still have very low allocations of global capital, and that is out of sync now with their share in world's GDP. There would an irreversible flow of capital to some of the larger EM nations just to get them to parity. A little of it happened in 2010, and I expect it to continue in 2011 as well. 


Apple reported some 70% growth in its revenues last quarter - well thats not an economy in recession. It just shows that the consumer confidence is back, and its high time financial markets also start displaying that confidence. 

Nifty View

Nifty has broken below its recent highs, and is trading below its key level of 6000. Market has been bogged down by the spate of bad news and controversies, and if they do not clear in time, we may be in for pretty bad times. 


However, my view is, we are still very much in the bull phase, and will keep going up smoothly. Breaking the old high is just a matter of time, and we would very soon be into unchartered territories. Unlike developed countries, where the growth rates are pretty low, India has progressed over the past few years. So, the earnings and balance sheet are now much stronger than in was in the last bull run. So, purely from the incremental progress made in the past 3 years, we should be at least crossing the previous peak soon - may be in 2010 itself. 


I would be a buyer below 6000, and only when market breaks below 5600 I would change my views. Above 5600, I'm bullish on India. 

Market View: Bullish Break-Out

Markets world over have broken out on the upside, and looks good to rally further up from here. Nifty is already in the bullish zone for some time, whereas the big global indices seems to have joined the party now.

S&P broke above its 50% retracement level of 1130-1140, and looks good to make another attempt at 1220. If it break that, then we are all set for the re-test of previous high of 1600.

FTSE is showing more bullish signal having already broken its 61.8% retracements level. Its poised to test the 5950 levels, and then go all the way to 6750 levels.

Among the Asian indices, only HSI seems to be sharing the global bullish overtone, whereas both Nikkei and Shanghai Comp appear weak. HSI is almost in the same state as S&P, having moved above the 50% retracement level, and making another go at the 61.8% level.

Nifty seems to have broken all the resistance levels. It making an aim at the all time high of 6300. The strength of the rally suggests that it would be broken soon.

Company Profile: Mahindra & Mahindra

Company Profile

Mahindra & Mahindra is India’s leading SUV and tractor manufacturer. Over the years, it has diversified into sectors as diverse as Real Estate, IT, Financial services, logistics and defense services. It has been acquiring companies and growing into new areas, with some of the recent acquisitions being Punjab Tractors, Satyam Computers and Ssangyong.

It is 26% owned by the promoters, and has a large FII holding (25%) as well.

Market Segment

M&M’s core business comprises utility vehicles, three-wheelers, mini vans and tractors. These segments are witnessing a demand upswing and M&M has a dominant position in these segments.

Its product range includes Bolero, Xylo and Scorpio (in UV range) – and it enjoys a 56% market share. In the farm equipment segment, M&M commands a 40% market share. Post the acquisition of Punjab tractors, M&M now has products catering to lower as well as upper end of the tractor segment.

M&M aims to become an international player in tractors and SUV – and has acquired Chinese tractor companies as well as Korean SUV maker Ssangyong. Currently, total exports are just 4.4% of sales, and expected to move up.

Financials

M&M stock has value unlocking potential from a number of subsidiaries – Defense, Logistics, Systec, IT and Holidays.

Market View: Chasing Growth

First things first - we are in a bull market. Anyone who says otherwise is someone who has missed the rally, and is desperately waiting for a correction to enter the market. Or, had invested at the bottom, only to cash out at the first up tick. Any market which moves more than 100% is certainly a bull market (check any text book if you may)- irrespective of the underlying reasons. It doesn't matter how much money the fed is printing, it doesn't matter where the inflation is. Price is king, and you made money if you were long. Else, the so called sucker rally has sucked you in it. 


The world has seen decoupling in the past couple of years - decoupling of the economy from the markets. Economy is still broken, and thats why Roubinis of the world still make ominous projections about the world. Yes, there are good chances of a double dip, and good chances of world falling back into the abyss. Unemployment may remain at 10% for prolonged periods, emerging markets may see super-inflation. But, the Dow is not going back to 7000, and 666 would remain the magical S&P number for our generation. Markets have taken off, and by the time this liquidity is sucked, we would be out of recession. 


There was much more quantitative easing than anyone imagined. How could one explain the lifetime high of Gold, Silver, Nifty, and thousand other uncorrelated securities at the same time. Add to it the super-inflation, and lifetime high of iPad/iPod/iPhone sales. We may be in deep shit, but we aren't out of purchasing power yet. In India, auto sales are an all time high, and we now have the second largest mobile subscriber base in the world. These are not signs of a bear market, but far from it. We have entered the next big bull run, and sooner we realize, the better it is. 


Investors the world over are chasing for yield. Following the QE, their currency is poised to depreciate, and offers paltry interest rates. It natural that the money would flow to emerging markets - which offer appreciating currencies, as well as higher yields. This is what is happening all around - with funds flowing from developed economies to the emerging markets. The big question is - is this flow sustainable? And the bigger question is - what would reverse this situation?


As long as US is in recession, this flow would continue. And by no means, I foresee US coming out of slowdown over the next 12 months. To reverse this flow, we need either an over-heated emerging markets, or fast recovery in US/EU. The former is more likely, but for that happen, the sucker sitting on the sideline has to jump into it. Till now, even the mutual funds haven't jumped into it, forget the retail guy. 

Company Profile: Tata Motors

Company Profile

Tata Motors is the most global of Indian auto companies, and its product portfolio includes passenger/goods carriers, passenger cars, and utility vehicles. It is India’s largest auto company by volume and 4^th largest truck manufacturer globally.

Over the years, it has acquired Daewoo’s Korean CV plant, and Jaguar Land Rover in UK. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Jamshedpur, Pune, Lucknow, Patna, Sanand and Dharwad.

Market Segmentation and Volumes

Tata Motors is present across almost all the segments (except 2W). Its JLR unit sells ~200k vehicles per year.

In the CV segment, overall sales are ~500k, and it has a dominant market share there. In the private vehicles segment, Nano has revived the overall sales number for the company, and it now sells ~200k units there. Its market share in private cars is 10% (compared with 50% for Maruti).

Its EPS is very volatile over the years due to large acquisitions, and huge debt on the books. However, the debt concerns are easing now, and D/E has come down from 6 to 2 from 2007 to 2010. Its projected EPS for 2011 is ~100.

Company Profile: Maruti Suzuki

Company Profile

Maruti is the market leader in small car and compact car segments in India. It was set up as a JV between the government of India, and Suzuki Motors. Government subsequently divested part of its stake, and currently Suzuki is the majority stake-holder.

Maruti is the oldest car manufacturer (among the current ones), and has one of the most trusted brands in the nation. It has the widest network, and has good presence in tier 2 towns as well.

The management team has been stable over the years – Shinzo Nakanishi is the CEO and MD. Over the past years, it has witnessed a volume growth of 14% CAGR, and revenue growth of 25%.

Market Segmentation

Maruti is the market leader in small and compact car segment, and has an overall market share of 50%. In the coming years, it is expected to lose some of the market shares to the new entrants, though it is still expected to be the leader with ~40-45% share.

Currently, Maruti sells around 100k cars per month, or 1.2mm cars a year. Bulk of the volume is from the domestic market sales, with exports accounting for only 10-12% of the volumes. Going ahead, its going to be a capacity constrained market, and Maruti has been adding capacity aggressively.

Cash EPS per share is INR 110, and at price of 1200, the stock is attractive.

Company Profile: Ashok Leyland

Company Profile

Ashok Leyland is the 2^nd largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in India, and offers wide range of carriers across all sizes. It is the flagship company of the Hinduja group. Earlier it was limited to the southern markets, but over the past few years has widened its network. It’s the best pure play on the commercial vehicles segment in the country.

40% of the company is owned by the promoters and around 14-15% by FIIs.

Segmentation

Ashok Leyland is a core CV player, and it benefits from higher industrial activities. During business cycles, the volatility in sales for CV is higher than that of passenger vehicles. It has started exporting to a few of the neighboring countries – Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Middle East. Overall, about 10% of the sales come from exports.

On an overall basis, AL manufactures 60k-80k vehicles annually. The new plant at Uttarakhand is expected to produce 20,000 units from 2010.

For 2010, EPS is INR 3, and stock is trading very rich to its historical valuations.

Company Profile: TVS Motors

Company Profile

TVS Motors is one of the smaller players in the 2W (and 3W) segment, and market leader in mopeds. Its key products are Apache, Star, Jive, Flame (all motorclycles), Scooty, and XL Super (moped). As a part of its plan to tap the overseas market, it has commissioned a plant in Indonesia.

It is part of the Sundaram Group, and current MD Venu Srinivasan holds 61% of the company. 7% shares are held by FIIs, and rest is held domestically.

Segmentation

Bulk of the sales for the company comes from the motorcycle segment (which is the largest segment as well). In addition, the company is fairly big in mopeds as well. Motorcycles and Mopeds each contribute roughly 40% of the overall sales (in units). Rest is made up by scooters and 3-wheelers.

The company is focusing on exports going ahead, and has a plant in Indonesia.

Financials

Its product mix is inferior to the top players, and it is present in a lot of low-margin segments (scooters as well as mopeds make up 50% of its total volume). As a result, its operating margins are lower than the industry, EBITDA levels as 7-8% (as against 15% for the top players).

The company has a core EPS of INR 2.5, and is trading at PE of 30. Its balance sheet is much smaller than HH and Bajaj, and it also lacks the resources to counter the competition.

Company Profile: Bajaj Auto

Company Profile

Bajaj Auto is the 2^nd largest 2-wheeler company in India, and has a diversified product portfolio. In addition to catering to the local markets, exports are also a good chunk of the overall volumes.

Bajaj is India’s largest exporter of 2W and 3W vehicles, and it currently exports to Africa, Latin America and Asian markets. Currently it is exporting 25% of its overall sales.

In 2008, the earlier combined entity was split up between the brothers, and Bajaj Auto was formed. It is being headed by Rajiv Bajaj – who owns 49% of the company. Another 20% is owned by FIIs, and rest is held domestically.

Segmentation

Bajaj remains a market leader in the premium segment of motorcycles, with its Pulsar being the highest selling bike in the segment. Also, it has Discover catering to the largest segment (deluxe), and Platina in the entry level segment. Over the years, Bajaj has rationalized its offering, and now has a much leaner product portfolio.

The company was a dominant player in the scooter business, but it has now exited the business (as it had become unprofitable).

In the 3W segment, company is a market leader, and currently ~10% of the sales are derived from this segment.

Financials

Bajaj Auto is expected to exceed the industry growth rate in the coming years, and is expected to grow sales at 17-18% in coming years.

On an average, it is expected to sell over 4M vehicles in 2011 (60% in domestic 2W segment, 30% in exports, and 10% in 3W). EPS for 2010 is INR 60, and company is trading at a PE of 25.