Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Pre-Budget Rally?

Market has been lack luster in India in recent couple of weeks, with Nifty failing to move higher. After having outperformed most other markets last year, it has been a laggard this year. However, all hope is not lost, and the coming budget session may provide some fresh ammo for the bulls. 

Liquidity remains high in the market, and it should keep the downside limited. China has outperformed most markets this year, and we may see a technical pullback in coming few sessions. Post CNY data should be interesting to watch. I would expect a further 3-4% correction in China before the next leg up. 

Best markets to play the long side currently should be Korea. Kospi has been underperforming the other indices because of a couple of reasons - (a) weaker yen, and (b) vanguard selling. However, over the longer term, none of this seems much of a big deal, and when the noise dies down, things should look better for Korea. Another similar play could be Taiwan. Both the countries are good proxies for being long on technological sector, as well as on China. 

Preferred Longs: Korea, Taiwan, China, India
Preferred Shorts: Gold, US, Japan