Thursday, January 22, 2009

Market View: January 22

Markets have already fallen by more than 5% since monday, and we are now below 2700 levels (on 1M futures). Going ahead, I think 2700 would act as a strong resistance, and we may see expiry around these levels.

Today the market moved sideways for whole of the day, without making any convincing moves in either direction. There was good money to be made trading intra-day gamma at smaller intervals. Interestingly, I think in these markets both short gamma and long gamma positions can end up making money. For a short gamma positions hedged at the end of the day, there aren't too many large 1-day moves to worry about, and for long gamma positions, markets really move up and down a lot (even a slightest news from any corner of the world spook the markets). Will be testing the same for January data after the expiry.

The expiry view still remains the same, in the 2600-2700 range. And on the volatility front, now there is a slightly lesser chance of vol spikes in this month. Quite a few results have already come-in, and going by the trend, there are no major surprises to worry about.

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