I have been wrong in my market views so far for this month. As against the initial expectations of market falling towards 2500-2600 band, we have seen major rally across the world for the last 2 days. S&P after moving from 800 to 680 levels in a week has bounced up sharply to 750 levels.
However, keeping the initial view intact, I still believe that we would be seeing a 2500-2600 expiry range. Nifty is currently trading at 2720 levels (which is a very strong resistance level now). I don't think we would gap open on the +ve side on monday (unless US moves by another 2-3% today, which seems unlikely).
This rally was also long overdue as markets had become over-sold. Nifty futures were trading at a discount of ~100 bps. And any gap-up opening was bound to cause huge short-covering - which is exactly what happened today. Now the Nifty futures discount have come down to 3 points, from 20-25 levels earlier. Now it seems that markets have over-reacted on the +ve side, and we would soon see a discount in the range of 10-12 points.
INR has remained flat at 51.5 levels, and going by the quantum of FII selling, I think we may even see 54 levels soon. Add to it the possibility of rate cuts.
However, keeping the initial view intact, I still believe that we would be seeing a 2500-2600 expiry range. Nifty is currently trading at 2720 levels (which is a very strong resistance level now). I don't think we would gap open on the +ve side on monday (unless US moves by another 2-3% today, which seems unlikely).
This rally was also long overdue as markets had become over-sold. Nifty futures were trading at a discount of ~100 bps. And any gap-up opening was bound to cause huge short-covering - which is exactly what happened today. Now the Nifty futures discount have come down to 3 points, from 20-25 levels earlier. Now it seems that markets have over-reacted on the +ve side, and we would soon see a discount in the range of 10-12 points.
INR has remained flat at 51.5 levels, and going by the quantum of FII selling, I think we may even see 54 levels soon. Add to it the possibility of rate cuts.
No comments:
Post a Comment