Saturday, February 20, 2010

Technical Analysis 104: Important Tools - I

Earlier posts of Technical Analysis:

In this post, and the next one, I would discuss about some of most commonly used tools (indicators) in Technical Analysis:

1. Moving Averages: Perhaps the most important points on any price charts are the moving averages – and they can used both for short term as well as long term analysis. Usually, there are multiple ways of calculating the MA, but most commonly used is the Simple Moving Average, and hence I would be using this one.
The important moving averages which should always be kept in mind for the important securities are:
    1. 5 DMA
    2. 10 DMA
    3. 20 DMA
    4. 50 DMA
    5. 100 DMA
    6. 200 DMA
These are important levels on the charts, and act as strong support and resistance levels. In addition to the home markets, they should also be followed for the regional as well global markets. I would be following the levels on Nifty, Sensex (home markets), Hang Seng, Shanghai composite, Kospi, Nikkei (regional markets), S&P, Dow, DAX, and FTSE (global markets) – on a daily basis.

2. Relative Strength: In a trend, there are sectors which perform well, and there are sectors which are laggards. Its always profitable to identify the sectors (and within the sector, the stocks) which have the strongest relative strength, as well as those with the weakest relative strength. This coupled with the general market trend could result into good stock picking early in the cycles.
I would be following the sectors of the home market, and track their performance vis-a-vis Nifty on a weekly basis, and report on Friday.

3. Volume and Open Interest: There is great information hidden in the market volume, as well as open interest data. Very few people in the market are able to make sense of these, and due to added complexity due to options data, it becomes quite complicated to make any sense. However, would try to capture the data and their sense on a weekly basis – how have markets moved, volume during the week, and how has open interest changed. Would start with Nifty on this, and as I become more comfortable, might add a couple of other indices or stocks.

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