Monday, August 9, 2010

Market View: August 9

This post assumes the reader has seen 'Inception'. In case you haven't, sorry for all the comparisons with the movie. Just to give you a rem/primer on the movie, its a new version of the Matrix trilogy - with more emphasis on the construction of matrix than on action and Trinity. 

We are all dreaming. In fact, we have been dreaming for the past couple of years. The reality was bad, very bad for the human race to digest. The Americans and Europeans who had spent their lives living off their credit card debt were suddenly to be told that it was not the right way of existence. It would have led to widespread depression (not the economic variety), and panic. So, to save the world, Uncle Ben Nolan weaved this dream - that all was well again. 

He injected massive amounts of penicillin in the system, and everyone went to dream. Whether we are in the first level of dreams or further down is anyone's guess. The only certainty is that no one would be able to get us out of it - neither crash landing, and nor any kicks on the back. The dream is much better than the real world - everything appears rosy, markets seem to be making a new high every day, gold is up, real estate prices are back to their peak levels and so are the markets. There are small-cap growth stories floating all around - and there are plenty of multi-baggers waiting to be discovered. Each new guy you meet has a secret of stocks that would become 4x in no time. 

This is not the real world, and we all have been dreaming. In the real world, more than 10% of people are out of jobs. There is a massive oversupply in the real estate markets, and there are no buyers. Government debt has exceeded all their previous highs, and yet show no sign of abatement. Companies are issuing fresh equity/debt at a breath-taking pace, each one trying to go ahead of others. 

Someone would need to start pulling the brakes. Or risk a crash. 

No comments: