Friday, January 31, 2014

Submerging Markets?

The world markets were in rude shock after the great rally in 2013, and haven't had the best of starts in January. Most big global indices are down, with China slowing down, and US just going on with the Taper plan. Emerging markets have taken both the news with a pinch of salt, and add to it the ongoing crisis in Argentina, Egypt, Turkey and Thailand, they should experience more outflows. 

However, things could get interesting here. With most data pointing towards a risk-off in EM assets, we may actually finally see EM outperforming DM this year. S&P is already trading at peak levels and peak valuations, and shouldn't see much of an upside. Some of the better emerging markets, like Korea or Taiwan, may see growth return back on healing economies, and can start outperforming.  I would think the markets with the strongest currencies should outperform ones with weak and volatile currencies, and hence I would think Korea and Taiwan could be the best performing markets here. 

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